Future Collector Cars

With some of the record prices recently paid for vintage Ferrari’s and historic machines from other great marques, a question I often ask myself is…what will the future collectible cars be?  It’s an interesting question and many car magazines attempt to make such predictions although they rarely seem to use a systematic methodology for making those decisions and the selections tend to be vehicles favored by the editor or article writer.

34 years ago I saw a 1957 Ferrari Testa Rossa for the first (and without knowing it the last) time in person at the Forest Grove auto show.  For years I could not understand why this car was worth less than the GTO.  The GTO is an amazing machine, without question, but the pontoon-fendered Testa Rossa is its’ equal in racing pedigree, rarity and surpasses it in the looks department.  I guess I knew what I was talking about because the Testa Rossa has eclipsed the GTO as the top money car in the whole world.

Some six years later my path would cross another Ferrari in the twilight of its appreciation.  This time it was a light metallic blue Ferrari 330 GTS in the parking lot of Ron Tonkin’s Gran Turismo.  Back then the little side lot adjacent to the showroom was smaller and was often jeweled with Ferrari’s and other exotics of more vintage fare than inside the showroom itself.  I was 16 years old and for me Tonkin’s Gran Turismo was about the best place in the world to hang out.  I would ride my bike down there on Saturday’s and just look through the window.  Once, Mr. Tonkin himself gave me a personal tour of the showroom and I was virtually speechless.

That 330 GTS was a stunner.  At that time two of my older brothers each had fairly well restored early T-birds, a 55 and a 56.  They were attractive cars and the 56 at least was a bit fast having been professionally modified with a 390 tri-power engine from a 62 bird.  They were worth about $10k a piece in the mid 80’s and both of my brothers had felt the itch to sell them and get something else.  But what?  I suggested an early 190 SL Mercedes which could be had for $4-$5K in reasonably good shape.   They were good looking machines but nothing like the 330.  On a fluke I went down to the Gran Turismo and asked about it.

1967 Ferrari 330 GTS

I knew a fair amount about Ferrari’s even at that age, but I had little knowledge of the 330 series.  I remember that the GM told me they were asking $24K for it and that they only made 100 of them.  $24K seemed like a huge number back then but that other number (100) stuck in my head.  They had made more than 100,000 of the 55 and 56 T-birds collectively by comparison.  It was apparent from inspecting the car that a total restoration would be needed.  The paint was chipped and worn and the original Borrani wire wheels were dull with age.  The black canvas top was fading and damaged from exposure to rain and sun and the tan leather interior was severely cracked and worn.  My understanding was that it was still a pretty good drivers’ car and the engine and other mechanicals were strong.  Still, it had cost more than 6K (of mid-80’s money) to restore 1 of the T-birds (and that was with us doing much of the work) and a vintage Ferrari would likely cost many times that.

I pitched the idea of selling both of the birds and getting the Ferrari to my father and brothers.  They shot the idea down immediately.  In fact, my father’s comments were that the Ferrari was “Italian trash” and the T-birds were classics.  Only one brother liked the idea and was out-voted 2 to 1.  You probably know where this is going.  Today both T-birds would be worth around $40K-$50K or so if they were kept in the condition they were in at that time.  The Ferrari 330 GTS is now worth around half a million dollars unrestored and is around 7-figures for a properly sorted one.  It seems that Italian trash turned out to be worth quite a bit—benefitting tremendously from that tiny production number of 100.  The Mercedes 190 SL's that I also suggested to them (which could be had for $4-5K then) trade hands for upwards of $100K in Concours condition.  So my brothers could have sold both birds, drummed up a bit more cash and got the Ferrari 330 GTS, sat on it for just a few years and sold it when Enzo Ferrari died in the late 80's (they were already worth 20X what Tonkin wanted even then).  Or they could have sold 1 Bird, got two Mercedes 190 SL's and had a couple hundred grand worth of cars now.  Here's what actually happened:  Brother 1 with the yellow 55 sold his a year later for a significant loss because he was ansty to buy a boat.  Brother 2 did even better.  He traded his white 56 Bird in on an 1985 Toyota MR2.  It was only a down payment so he ended up making payments on a depreciating mass produced Japanese commuter car which is now worth maybe $1500.

The 1955 T-Bird

For those of you that still cannot resist the urge to go out and capture that future auction darling, here is my advice and my personal tips on some cars that might echo my predictions from the mid-80’s.

Rule 1:  The car needs to have a low volume.  Regardless of the name on the badge and how much the car costs when new, high volume numbers mean nothing but depreciation in the future.

Rule 2:  The car needs to look at least somewhat good.  The less attractive a car is the less likely it will ever register as worth having.  There are exceptions to this rule which you can witness at auctions today but why press your luck?  Believe it or not the old Ford Mavericks are actually steadily climbing in value????

Rule 3:  Buy the car when no one else considers it to have future value and then have the patience (and resources) to sit on it.

Pick number 1:  First generation Mercedes SLK AMG32.

This is basically a supercar in secretary clothing.  The 349 horsepower 1^st gen AMG version of the quintessential baby Benz roadster meets all three of my criteria.  Only a bit more than 4,000 were ever made so it’s rare by modern production standards, it’s arguably the best looking of the SLK AMGs’ thanks to being penned by Bruno Sacco, and no one has completely figured out how amazing this machine is yet.  Let’s put it this way, it will outrun every small Ferrari ever made (except the new 458 Italia) to 60mph.  Despite this a clean example can be had for $14-$18K.

Mercedes SLK32 AMG

Pick number 2:  86 Ford Mustang SVO

Ford’s venture into making an upscale sophisticated version of the venerable Mustang that could give European sport coupes a run for their money never really took off with its traditionally blue-collar buyers.  Ford only made the expensive turbo-charged special vehicle operations version of the Stang for three years and the 1986 model had the lowest production numbers at just a hair over 1,600.  It meets the rarity criteria easily and some would argue that the simple yet effective styling cues that set it apart from its V8 sibling made it one of the best looking Mustangs ever built.  Few collectors have managed to keep an eye on it and values are still very reasonable.  I doubt that will be the case in another 20 years.

Ford Mustang SVO

Pick number 3:  NorthStar Powered Cadillac Allante

I’m sure several people will point out that the Allante’ wasn’t a very good car and they would be right.  I have mechanic friends who attest to the fact that it was poorly designed in most of the traditional culprit areas for the Italians (i.e. everything).  GM made the mistake of letting Pininfarina do more than just pen the design when they allowed them to actually produce the cars on GM platforms.  So the wiring is crap, the interior is crap, it cost ten million dollars to replace a brake light housing and not too much actually fits together properly.  But all this just enhances the Italian experience.  The Allante was breathtakingly good looking.  Compare it side by side with the Mercedes SL of the same era:  the Allante looks like a Marathon runner while the German Wundercar looks like a fat banker.  It’s even better looking than the super-expensive Cadillac roadster that replaced it, the XLR.  The design was so good that it still looks fully modern today—slap a couple of 18-19 inch rims on it and it could pass for a 2012 model.  And we haven’t even got to the engine yet.  The early model Allante’s suffered from anemia courtesy of a V-8 sourced from the GM parts bin.  Couple the crap engine with front wheel drive and the early Allante’s were little more than a smaller, prettier Oldsmobile Toronado with a removable top.  The later models had the ground-breaking Northstar V-8 sandwiched transversely up front.  They were still front wheel drive but now they had 400hp and a billion pound feet of torque (okay not quite that much).  Test drivers in Car and Driver commented that the later Allante didn’t feel like a front wheel drive car.  GM likely tweaked the suspension geometry when they dropped the Northstar in but some of the improved handling feel could have been the result of all that additional power.  So the caddy has a couple of the criteria going for it:  looks and some decent performance, but what about scarcity?  In truth, the Allante was never a big seller.  It was expensive and the build quality wasn’t up to the standards of the Mercedes SL (it’s biggest rival).  People with the money chose the SL over the American/Italian hybrid.  By the time GM tried to salvage it by dramatically improving it, it was too late and the whole line was scrapped.

Cadillac Allante

Cars that just won’t make it but everyone thinks they will:

1). Dodge Viper.  I’m going to make a lot of enemies but I have never liked this car.  It was butt ugly when it first came out although it’s looks have refined over the years.  It has developed some great handling over its evolution, but it's still a heavy bucket with a truck engine, pretending to be a modern Shelby Cobra.  I originally wrote that they made quite a few of these but according to the International Viper Registry, the actual documentation of how many were made was somewhat hit and miss.  They have data that allegedly covers production numbers from 1992 through 2008 showing somewhere north of 20,000 cars total production.  If you take the production trends and push them out five more years you're pushing 30,000 units which I find hard to believe.  I see Vipers quite frequently--too frequently in fact to believe that the very few Vipers there allegedly are have flocked to the environmentally fanatical Pacific Northwest.  Any of the die hard fans who love this car and especially those who bought one thinking it was a great investment should be a little concerned that the factory has been so foot loose and fancy free with production documentation.  First, if they ever do begin to escalate in price, forging fake records about the authenticity of a rarer version of the Viper lineage will be relatively easy.  Ferrari is a good example of a company that keeps excellent records of its production models which hugely benefits Ferraristi investors.  The Viper just looks like something that would be in a cartoon rather than a serious car collection.  If you want further proof watch the Great Factories episodes about Bentley and Viper back to back.  Considering the cars fenders and body panels are made of bumper material you can see where I'm going.  You can love the Viper all you want.  It's blistering fast no question.  It just isn't ever going to be worth anything.

1992 Dodge Viper 

If you have a show car that you think will be worth something someday, take proper care of it and try and learn some techniques from this blog.  For help along the way, contact us:  http://www.blacklabelmotoring.net